In the current market,what people are more concerned about is not the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate,nor the 10-year U.S.Treasury bond,but the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the United States.

At the beginning of July,the U.S.overnight secured financing rate broke through 5.4%,setting a new high for the year.This upward trend indicates that the liquidity in the U.S.financial market is relatively tight,and the borrowing cost between banks has increased.If it continues to rise,there will be a big problem.

Recently,the U.S.Department of Labor's revised non-farm data has sparked endless speculation in the market,which is equivalent to indirectly admitting data fraud.Subsequently,Citibank released a rate cut path chart,believing that the United States will start cutting interest rates 8 times from September.

Analysts believe that this is the wailing of the U.S.banking industry.However,due to the intensification of the liquidity tension in the U.S.banking industry,this can be seen as a "pressure" on the Federal Reserve by the banking industry.It also indirectly shows that the impact of maintaining high interest rates on the U.S.banking industry is continuously deteriorating.

So far,the U.S.national debt is approaching 35 trillion U.S.dollars.According to the current high interest rate of 5%,the interest that the United States needs to repay this year has broken through 100 billion U.S.dollars,while last year it was still more than 60 billion,lower than the U.S.military expenditure (80 billion U.S.dollars).

According to the current scale and interest rate of U.S.Treasury bonds,the interest expenditure of U.S.national debt will exceed military expenditure and become the largest single expenditure item in the United States.

However,the U.S.fiscal deficit has reached 1.7 trillion U.S.dollars,and it is seriously in deficit.With the rise of the interest expenditure of national debt,the scale of the fiscal deficit will only increase,and the debt snowball will roll bigger and bigger.

However,even so,the Federal Reserve has not explicitly stated the time node for interest rate cuts,and even made a tough statement again that it will not cut interest rates within the year.Almost the whole world is looking forward to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts,and the Federal Reserve's operations are constantly disrupting market expectations.Facing the continuous rise in the scale of U.S.debt,the market is worried that U.S.debt may default.More importantly,within the next 12 months,the United States will have $9.3 trillion in debt maturing,and the U.S.will have to rob Peter to pay Paul,continuing to take on a large amount of debt.

However,overseas investors are not buying it.Our country has always been the main force in reducing U.S.debt.If we count from 2022 to the present,our country has reduced its holdings by more than 200 billion U.S.dollars,Japan has reduced by more than 60 billion U.S.dollars,and Russia has almost completely cleared the U.S.debt it held.

In fact,Japan sold 200 billion U.S.dollars in debt in one year in 2022,but it started to increase its holdings again in 2023.By April 2024,Japan began to reduce its holdings,because Wall Street was hunting Japan,and the yen exchange rate plummeted,forcing Japan to sell U.S.debt.

However,Japan's sale of U.S.debt,the central bank's intervention did not change the current situation of the yen exchange rate falling,but in June,the yen exchange rate plummeted again.In order to harvest Japan,the United States has already disregarded so much.

However,the biggest seller of U.S.debt is not China,Japan,nor Russia,but the Federal Reserve.

According to the data,as of June this year,the Federal Reserve holds $4.47 trillion in U.S.Treasury bonds,far higher than the holdings of China and Japan.

As early as June 2022,the Federal Reserve held $5.77 trillion in U.S.debt.By calculation,the Federal Reserve has sold $1.3 trillion in U.S.debt in the past two years,which China and Japan cannot compare.Japan currently holds $1.1 trillion,even if it clears all its holdings,it still cannot reach the Federal Reserve's sales volume,and our country's current holdings are only $770 billion.

The Federal Reserve sells U.S.debt because selling the U.S.debt in its hands can recover the U.S.dollars in the market,tighten liquidity,which is also the "balance sheet reduction" of the Federal Reserve.This process is also the process of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes,tightening liquidity,and suppressing inflation.

Therefore,since June 2022,the Federal Reserve has almost reduced its holdings by $60 billion every month,but starting from June 2024,the Federal Reserve's pace of reducing U.S.debt has slowed down,and the monthly reduction has been reduced from $60 billion to $25 billion,which is equivalent to releasing part of the liquidity.Many people are puzzled,the Federal Reserve has sold off $1.3 trillion in U.S.Treasury bonds,and in recent years,our country has also sold off tens of billions of U.S.Treasury bonds.In addition,the United States has issued tens of trillions of U.S.Treasury bonds,who has "taken over" these U.S.Treasury bonds?

Firstly,overseas investors have accumulated "taken over" $500 billion in U.S.Treasury bonds over the past two years,most of which were taken over by the United States' allies,such as the United Kingdom,Canada,Luxembourg and other countries.

Secondly,U.S.mutual funds,pension funds,state governments,banks and other institutions have taken over trillions of U.S.Treasury bonds,and the proportion of U.S.Treasury bonds they hold is also as high as more than 60%.

Finally,large U.S.enterprises,financial institutions,families and individuals have also taken over a part of the U.S.Treasury bonds.

Therefore,in these years,the largest seller of U.S.Treasury bonds is the Federal Reserve,and the largest buyer (the one who takes over) is the United States itself,the external "the one who takes over" is getting less and less,and the global process of "de-dollarization" is still advancing,and the dollar liquidity is impacted.