Let's talk about some patterns in A-shares that often yield good results in practical application.

The first one is the Spring Festival restlessness mentioned at the end of last year. A data review of the past 22 years shows that the probability of the Wind All A index rising in February is as high as 78%.

This conclusion was very well verified this year, especially after experiencing a painful liquidity squeeze in January, the single-month increase in February this year was 8.13%. So the position in February is very key to the annual income.

1. Spring restlessness: an average duration of 62 days, an increase of 17%

Regarding the characteristics of the spring restlessness, I have talked a lot about it at the end of last year, and I will not repeat it. What everyone cares about most now is how long does the Spring Festival restlessness market usually last?

After summarizing the spring market of each round since 2009, the following conclusions can be drawn:

I. Historically, the probability of the spring market occurring is relatively high (13/15)

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From 2009 to 2023, only in 2015 (the bull market continued, and the market strength was not obvious) and 2022 (the domestic and international macro environment was special, such as the Fed starting to raise interest rates, Russia-Ukraine geopolitical disturbances, etc.) did not occur, other years can observe the spring market, the difference is mainly in strength and phase.

II. The spring market has a certain guiding effect on the annual index return rateIn years where the index return rates are relatively low, the spring market often tends to be weak or even absent, and this rule has been more evident since 2017.

That is to say, if there is no spring market in a year, the whole year is estimated to be hopeless. Typical examples are 2018 and 2022, where the market fell in the first quarter and continued to fall from the beginning to the end of the year.

III. The spring market may be advanced, but it is relatively rare and requires multiple bullish signals to appear together.

Since 2009, the spring market has advanced twice, in 2013 and 2020, with common characteristics being that the market can observe improvements in the economic fundamentals, macro/market liquidity, domestic policy intensity (reform expectations), large-scale, strong trend, and sustainable themes (Beautiful China from 2012-2013, and new energy vehicles from 2019-20).

IV. There is a certain reversal effect in the spring market.

The return rate of the whole A market during the spring market is negatively correlated with the return rate of the whole A market in the past 1 year, with an R-squared of 43.1%.

V. The probability of rising in February is the highest.

The probability of rising in February (after the conditional mandatory disclosure period of annual performance forecasts in January) reaches 76.9%, far higher than other months, and is the core period of the spring market. In April, when financial reports are densely released, it is the lowest, at 30.8%.

This is the statistical pattern of the spring market since 2009:

The duration ranges from 30 days to 106 days, with an average of 62 days. Taking the CSI 300 as the standard, the average increase is about 17%.If we take February 6th as the starting point of this spring's market trend, then today marks the 60th day. The increase in the CSI 300 is 12.21%. In this way, the time has reached the historical average level, while the space is slightly lower than the historical average. Everyone should have a standard in mind for this.

Next, let's talk about another very useful rule: the April decision.

② April Decision

Spring restlessness refers to the restlessness in the market in the first quarter, characterized by active thematic investment, increased market turnover, and accelerated industry rotation.

For example, this year's spring restlessness, represented by artificial intelligence in the TMT sector, and various themes such as flying cars, have rotated very quickly.

However, around the 17th week, the rotation of these thematic stocks reaches its peak, which is generally from late April to early May.

Around the 17th week, the speed of industry rotation gradually begins to decline.

Moreover, the second quarter usually determines the main theme of the year. For example, the food and beverage and electronics that led the increase in the second quarter of 2019, and the new energy that led the increase in the second quarter of 2021, have all become the main theme throughout the year.

The phenomenon of determining the main theme in the second quarter is actually not hard to understand, and it is the result of the superposition of A-share performance cycle, policy cycle, and economic activity cycle.I. Performance Cycle

The rhythm of performance disclosure generates a seasonal effect in profit forecasts. Looking at the rhythm of A-share performance disclosure, April, July, and October are three relatively important time nodes.

After October each year, A-shares will gradually become insensitive to the performance growth rate of that year and enter a relatively long performance vacuum period.

In April, the annual report of the previous year and the first quarter report of the current year are disclosed, and the market has found a new performance anchor for industry comparison.

The degree of profit forecast divergence and optimistic expectations of A-share analysts generally converges gradually from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, but a relatively stable platform period is formed in the second quarter. The market speculates on the growth rate for that year based on the performance of the first quarter report and maintains this judgment throughout the second quarter.

II. Policy Cycle

The overall performance of A-shares is greatly influenced by national industrial policies, monetary policies, and fiscal policies, so the seasonal effect of national policies also affects the performance of the stock market to a certain extent.

The Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference held in December mainly discuss and analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work for the following year. The expectation of policies will continue until the "Two Sessions" in March of the following year, and various conjectures about policies before the "Two Sessions" have promoted the activity of the theme market in the first quarter.

On the other hand, the budget and final accounts of various government departments and institutions are generally concentrated in the first quarter, and the fiscal policy for the whole year after the first quarter is clearer. Therefore, the grasp of the policy direction for the whole year in the second quarter is often clearer.

III. Economic Activity CycleBecause the Spring Festival falls in the first quarter, economic activities are generally not very active during this period. Infrastructure and real estate, as representatives of economic activities, are significantly affected by weather and the Lunar New Year, resulting in a clear weakness in the operating hours of excavators in the first quarter, which gradually return to normal after the second quarter.

From the perspective of credit, after the beginning of the year, banks often have a strong lending impulse due to the acquisition of new annual credit targets, accounting for about 40% of the annual total. The abundant liquidity also promotes the activity of the stock market.

The decisive factor here is the performance cycle, which is adjusted according to the annual report and the first quarter's expectations for the new year's company operations.

Statement: The article only records the author's thoughts and does not constitute investment advice. Investment involves significant risks and should be approached with caution, caution, and more caution. I hope everyone treats their investment like they would when renovating a house. Don't spend less time choosing a company than you would spend choosing furniture. If you can weigh the pros and cons for small amounts of money, why be so careless with large sums?