Vietnam recently released its GDP data for the second quarter of this year and the first half of 2024, as well as import and export trade data. At first glance, Vietnam's economic performance seems quite good based on these figures.

However, there have been overwhelming reports on the internet about Vietnam's economy being in its "darkest hour," with the Vietnamese economy collapsing in the online world for quite some time. So, what exactly is going on? Who is telling the truth, and who is not?

According to data released by Vietnam's General Statistics Office, in the second quarter of 2024, Vietnam's GDP grew by 6.93% year-on-year, close to a 7% growth rate, which is something few countries in the world can achieve.

Furthermore, in the first quarter of this year, Vietnam's GDP grew by 5.87%, and it rose to 6.93% in the second quarter. Therefore, for the entire first half of 2024, Vietnam's GDP grew by 6.4% year-on-year.

The most powerful support for Vietnam's economic growth rate of over 6% is the manufacturing industry. In the first half of the year, Vietnam's primary industry grew by 3.3%, the service industry grew by 6.6%, and the manufacturing industry surged by 8.6%, continuing to be an important driving force for its economic growth.

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As an export-oriented economy, Vietnam is highly dependent on foreign trade. According to Vietnam's statistical data, in the first half of this year, Vietnam's total import and export volume was $368.4 billion, with exports exceeding $190 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%.

In addition, the import amount in the same period was $178.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, resulting in a trade surplus of $11.6 billion.

With both exports and imports achieving double-digit growth and GDP growth exceeding 6%, where can one see this as the "darkest hour"?

The articles that were widely circulated on the internet about Vietnam's economy being in its "darkest hour" mainly referred to the exchange rate crisis in Vietnam in April of this year, when the Vietnamese dong hit a new low against the US dollar, posing challenges to its financial system and foreign exchange.On one hand, external factors were at play. At that time, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly signaled an interest rate hike, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and putting pressure on the currencies of Asia, including the Vietnamese dong, whose exchange rate continued to decline. Subsequently, central banks across Asia intervened to stabilize the market.

On the other hand, internal factors were also at work. The wealthiest woman in Vietnam's real estate, Truong My Lan, "emptied" the Saigon Bank, known as the third largest bank in Vietnam. The Vietnamese central bank urgently injected $24 billion into the bank. However, the total foreign exchange reserves of Vietnam were only $80 billion.

Therefore, in dealing with external financial risks, Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves were clearly insufficient.

However, to describe Vietnam's current economic situation as the "darkest hour" is an exaggeration. After all, the GDP growth rate and import and export data are impressive. Currently, the exchange rates of currencies in various Asian countries are under pressure from the strong US dollar, not just Vietnam.

But the United States does not have a clear intention to exploit Vietnam. To put it bluntly, Vietnam's economic scale is too small, not even comparable to a province in our country, and it's not enough for the United States to fill the gap. After all, the United States currently has a huge debt hole, and it is targeting large economies like Japan and the European Union.

Just look at the current exchange rate of the Japanese yen. The yen's exchange rate has plummeted, once again reaching the 160 mark. Some institutions claim that the yen may fall to 170. The Bank of Japan was forced to sell US Treasury bonds to intervene, and subsequently, Japan was labeled as a "currency manipulator" by the United States. Having been exploited once before, what's the shame in continuing the exploitation?

For Vietnam, China is its largest importer, while the United States is its largest exporter. Vietnam relies on China's supply chain for upstream raw materials and also depends on the US consumer market. The proportion of intermediate products in Sino-Vietnamese trade is as high as 70%.

In fact, the role played by Vietnam is similar to that of Mexico, both being export-oriented economies that depend on China's supply chain. They import upstream raw materials from our country, process and produce them domestically, and then export them to Europe and America.So, Vietnam also has a considerable inflow of foreign investment. In the first half of this year, Vietnam attracted over 15 billion US dollars in foreign investment, a growth of 13%. The investment amounts from Singapore, China, Japan, and South Korea are relatively high. In terms of the number of foreign investment projects, our country's investment accounts for one-third.

According to the report data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, in the first five months of this year, Vietnam's export of mobile phones and components reached 22.4 billion US dollars, a growth of 11%. It has surpassed India to become the world's second-largest exporter of mobile phones, second only to our country.

In addition, Vietnam's export of computers and electronic products reached 27 billion US dollars, with an increase of more than 30%, making it the world's fifth-largest exporter of computers.

Looking at the data trend, the proportion of Vietnam's export of mobile phones and computers and other electronic products in its total export volume continues to rise. In 2011, it was less than 5%, and by 2023, it has reached 16%.

From the current perspective, Vietnam's GDP is still in a rapid growth phase, and its economic volume is not large. However, the scale of attracting foreign investment and import and export trade is growing rapidly. At the same time, the weakness of Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves and financial system is also obvious, making it extremely susceptible to plundering and harvesting by European and American capital.