Recently, the price of Moutai can be described as "a three-thousand-foot waterfall," which did not rise as expected during the Dragon Boat Festival, and then plummeted like a waterfall. The most basic product, Feitian Moutai, has seen its market price drop from 3,200 yuan at the end of last year to 2,230 yuan on June 14th. Moutai is not just a simple liquor; it has long become a financial product, and its sharp price drop has naturally had an immediate significant impact. On community platforms, scalpers began to collectively turn against the tide, with tens of thousands of scalpers applying for invoices in the liquor industry within just a few hours, even calling on their peers to collectively refuse to accept goods, and setting June 9th as the "Yellow Moutai Uprising." Many big scalpers who are well-known in the Moutai industry have even directly disbanded their customer groups and ran away with the money.
We mentioned in 2011 that Moutai is a special commodity with pricing power. The company can increase profits by raising prices within a certain price range, while customers can only passively accept and have no bargaining power. However, this time it seems that Moutai Company's "pricing power" has failed. Last year, Guizhou Moutai issued an important announcement, starting from November 1, 2023, to increase the factory price of 53% vol Guizhou Moutai liquor (Feitian, Five Stars) by an average of about 20%, which strongly guaranteed the company's profits. After this adjustment, the factory price of 53° Feitian Moutai was about 1,169 yuan/bottle, and the market price also reached 3,200 yuan/bottle. But it seems that this is the ceiling of Moutai's price range, and recently the price of Moutai has been falling all the way, making Moutai Company's pricing power treasure not so effective.
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There are several reasons for the sharp drop in Moutai's price: 1. Xunfeng liquor. It is rumored on the Internet that Xunfeng liquor will be put on the market with 200,000 bottles, exceeding the market's acceptance capacity, and thus bringing down the overall price of Moutai liquor. However, some people with good math skills calculated that 200,000 bottles of Xunfeng liquor, which is only about 750 tons, accounts for only about 0.18% of the 42,000 tons of Moutai liquor sold in 2023, so this theory seems unreliable. 2. Supply exceeds demand. The output of Moutai liquor increased from 49,700 tons in 2018 to 57,200 tons in 2023, an increase of 15%; the sales volume of Moutai liquor increased from 32,500 tons in 2018 to 42,100 tons in 2023, an increase of nearly 30%. The production growth is too fast, and the market is unable to digest it, which also makes sense. 3. Playing Guandan. It is said that in the past, most of the exchanges between high-end people were at the wine table, but now they are mainly in playing Guandan. If you drink too much during the meal, you can't play Guandan. This seems too far-fetched, and there are very few people in high-end games who get drunk, everyone just tastes a little, mainly for communication. 4. Consumption downgrade. This is more plausible. The real estate downturn cycle is superimposed with the impact of the epidemic, and the economy is not booming. It's not just Moutai, most consumption, especially high-end consumption, is being downgraded.
For consumer research, many people pay more attention to the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which has a large range and is about a 42-month cycle, roughly the same as the Kitchin cycle. However, due to its luxury nature, Moutai is not only a consumer product but also has financial attributes, and its cycle is obviously longer. The investment cycle is often replaced by the PPI (Producer Price Index) cycle, which is about 100 months, consistent with the 9-year Juglar cycle. Let's look at Moutai since this century, there has also been a price reduction cycle. Table 1 shows that after the market price of 53° Feitian Moutai reached 2,000 yuan/bottle in 2011, it began to decline, once falling by 55%, and the price fell to 900 yuan/bottle. Then it started to rise in 2016, and it was not until 2019 that it broke through the 2,000 yuan mark again, reaching 2,300 yuan/bottle. The decline lasted nearly 5 years, and the entire cycle was about 8 years, which is basically consistent with the PPI cycle.
Time | Factory Price | Market Price
2011 | - | 2,000 yuan/bottleTranslate the following text into English: 619
2000
2012
819
1400
2013
819
1000
2014
819
Here is the translation:
619
2000
2012
819
1400
2013
819
1000
2014
819
Please note that these are just numbers and do not form a coherent sentence or phrase in English. If you need a specific context or a sentence to be translated, please provide more information.Here is the translation of the provided text into English:
2015
819
900
2016
819
1200
2017
819
1400
Please note that the numbers seem to be dates or quantities, but without context, it is unclear what they specifically represent. If you could provide more context or clarify the meaning of these numbers, I would be happy to help further.Translate the following text into English: 2018
969
1800
2019
969
2300
2020
969
2850
2021
The text is a list of numbers and years, so the translation would be the same in English:
2018
969
1800
2019
969
2300
2020
969
2850
2021Table 1: Historical Prices of 53° Feitian Moutai
It appears that the price of Moutai has just begun to decline, and it will take more than eight years to surpass the high point of 3,200 yuan/bottle. Of course, such statistics have too few samples, and it seems that the representativeness is insufficient. Recently, there has been a sharp decline, and it might be a short bear market followed by a long bull market. The price fluctuations of Moutai wine have an impact on the stock price, but the relationship does not seem to be direct. At the previous high point in 2011, the Moutai stock price was still lower than in 2012 when the price of Moutai wine began to fall. In the years 2014 and 2015, when the local price of Moutai wine was at its lowest, the stock price had already turned into a big bull market. Looking at historical data, the stock price of Guizhou Moutai is not directly related to the market price of Moutai wine, but it is roughly synchronized with the overall stock market, of course, the increase is greater, and the decline is smaller.
Since the situation is so complex, what should investors do? Let's take a look at the views of investment giants. The well-known investor Duan Feit, Duan Yongping, has always been optimistic about the prospects of Moutai: "People who like to drink Moutai will not stop drinking it just because the market price has fallen, but currently, the activity of business may have declined a bit, so they drink less? People who like Moutai Company should be happier when the stock price is lower." Duan Yongping further compared that in the electronic product industry, once the product is unsold, the consequences will be more serious. However, for Moutai, poor sales only mean that there are more aged wines in the inventory. He also said that these wines may "make more money" in the future. Duan Yongping also summarized that although the market has some fluctuations, the essence and value of Moutai have not changed. "The market is a voting machine in the short term, but it is a weighing machine in the long term. So, the market is still that market, and Moutai is still that Moutai."
On June 11, the well-known novelist Zijin Chen also shared his investment dynamics on social media, announcing that he had increased his position by 300 shares of Guizhou Moutai and expressed confidence in the performance growth of Guizhou Moutai in the next three to five years. On June 12, Zijin Chen further elaborated on his investment strategy, facing the rapid decline of Moutai's stock price, he admitted that his judgment had some deviation, and adjusted his buying strategy. He said that he plans to increase his position every time the stock price falls by 50 yuan, with the goal of reducing the holding cost to below 1,550 yuan. If the stock price falls to 1,350 yuan, he will further increase his holdings through financing.
In my personal opinion, Duan Feit is the most reasonable. If you have a lot of Moutai wine at home and don't want to sell it, just keep it. Moutai wine is not afraid of being stored, the longer the time, the more valuable it is. As long as you are not a speculator, eager to make quick money, it is better to store it. If the price continues to fall, if you have some spare money, you can also buy some to store.
As for the stock, Duan Feit can hold it for a long time, as he has already held it for many years, with a lot of floating profits. For those who do not hold Moutai positions, I do not recommend learning from Zijin Chen. He is a writer, not an investor, and only hears some skills. At the beginning, Hu Xijin also adopted the strategy of buying more when the price fell, and he is still stuck now. We are not big players like various Feits with tens of billions of dollars, and it is not suitable to build positions on the left side and try to bottom fish, which will be very uncomfortable to be stuck. Investors with less capital are suitable for building positions on the right side, that is, to learn from Li Chusheng not to eat the head and tail of the fish, and buy after the trend is confirmed. It has already fallen for four years, so there is no need to worry about waiting. Or simply wait for Zijin Chen to be stuck after financing the purchase, and then buy it two or three months later, it is also okay, ha ha.