The uncertainty of the global economy continues to increase, with Europe leaning to the right, the French bond market experiencing shocks, Germany on the brink of recession, and the possibility of a resurgence of the European debt crisis. The United States and the European Union have imposed additional tariffs on our country's electric vehicles, and there are rumors that Saudi Arabia has refused to sign the petrodollar agreement with the United States...

As major global powers, China, the United States, and Russia have a profound impact on the global economy and its direction. The United States' finance, China's manufacturing, and Russia's energy are constantly affecting the global economy. With Russia's release of its GDP data for the first quarter of this year, the GDP of the three countries has been fully updated.

First, let's take a look at Russia's economy. Due to Moscow's proximity to Europe and closer economic ties with the EU, the demand for Russian energy in Europe has plummeted since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, forcing Russia to shift the bulk of its energy exports to the East.

According to various data, after a brief economic downturn, Russia has returned to economic growth, while Europe has "self-inflicted" by raising the cost of manufacturing due to high energy prices, and exports have also fallen into a slump, with the whole of Europe on a downward trend.

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Data from the statistical bureaus of European countries show that France's GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, Germany's GDP decreased by 0.9%, Italy's GDP grew by 0.7%, and the UK's GDP only grew by 0.2%, with the entire EU growing by 0.5% in the first quarter.

The main economies of Europe have a GDP growth rate of less than 1%, and even Germany, which is regarded as the engine of the European economy, has a negative economic growth.

In contrast, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development estimates that Russia's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, and recently the Russian Federal State Statistics Service released the latest official data, showing that Russia's GDP indeed grew by 5.4% in the first quarter.

It is important to note that in the first quarter of this year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, and Russia's economic growth rate is even higher than that of our country.In addition to oil and gas exports, Russia's manufacturing and construction industries are also becoming important drivers for its economic growth. Last year, Russia was the largest destination for our country's automobile exports. It is also in the process of our country's automobile going global that has promoted the integration and development of Russia's own automobile manufacturing industry chain.

However, due to the depreciation of the ruble exchange rate in the first quarter of this year, Russia's GDP shrank by more than 20 billion US dollars after being converted to US dollars, and the GDP fell to 0.47 trillion US dollars, ranking 11th in the world.

Next, let's take a look at the latest data of China and the United States. The US GDP in the first quarter of this year was revised to 6.9 trillion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. The total economic output is still a "giant" and is 14.6 times that of Russia. This gap is almost a cliff-like expansion.

At the same time, China's GDP in the first quarter grew by 5.3% year-on-year. Similar to the Russian ruble, the renminbi also experienced depreciation in the first quarter. Therefore, our country's GDP, when converted to US dollars, is 4.17 trillion US dollars, accounting for 60% of the United States.

A few years ago, our country's GDP reached as high as 77% of the United States, but since the US dollar interest rate hike, the US dollar index has strengthened, and the exchange rate has been strong, while the renminbi exchange rate has been declining, gradually causing the widening gap between China and the United States.

The most obvious phenomenon is Japan. Since the US dollar interest rate hike in 2022, the yen exchange rate has experienced several sharp declines, and Japan's GDP has plummeted after being converted to US dollars. In 2023, Japan's GDP fell to 4.2 trillion US dollars, was overtaken by Germany, and ranked fourth in the world.

So far this year, the yen has continued to plummet. According to the IMF's calculation, it is expected that Japan's GDP may be overtaken by India next year. In addition to the sharp decline in exchange rates, Japan's own economy is also relatively sluggish. The once-prominent automobile manufacturing industry has become dim in the face of the rise of China's new energy vehicles, and the industrial competitiveness has declined.

Therefore, the impact of the US dollar interest rate hike on the exchange rates of various countries is very great. Moreover, the US dollar interest rate hike, in the name of controlling inflation, has also become a major tool for harvesting the wealth of various countries. Therefore, the market is very concerned about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and the number of times.

Although GDP is not the only indicator to measure the economy, it can be seen the trend and future trend of the economies of various countries. With the implementation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in the future, the long-term appreciation of the renminbi, the gap between China and the United States will inevitably narrow.The many established powers in Europe will gradually decline, coupled with the "bloodsucking" of the United States, the crisis of these European allies will only become more severe. However, the emergence of the far-right has added some uncertainty.

The industrial advantages of Japan and South Korea will also be broken one by one by our country. As developed countries, the advantages of the "moat" are gradually lost. India, as an emerging economy, has strong economic growth and is expected to become the third largest economy after China and the United States in the future. At that time, the global economy and international situation will undergo tremendous changes.