New real estate regulations are here! Guangzhou takes the lead in implementing them, firing the first shot in the real estate market. So, how should ordinary people respond next?

Now, Guangzhou stipulates that a family, as long as they do not have a complete set of housing in Guangzhou, regardless of whether they have used loans to purchase housing, can buy a house according to the new policy for the first home.

What does this mean? It means that even if you have 100 houses in other places, as long as you don't have a house in Guangzhou, you can buy a house according to the policy for the first home; also, those people who originally had a house in Guangzhou, but they need to change the house, at this time, when they sell the old house and then buy a new house, they can also enjoy the preferential policy for the first home. In addition to the 30% down payment for the first home, you can also enjoy a lower interest rate.

The implementation of the new policy in Guangzhou is, of course, a great piece of good news for those who want to improve their housing and for those who come to work in Guangzhou. Everyone no longer has to worry about not being able to afford the down payment.

At this time, some netizens said, no longer need to buy a house through a fake divorce. Some real estate salespeople also said, our real estate is about to rise in price! It seems that this policy has played a certain role.

Today, let's talk about the impact of Guangzhou's "recognize the house but not the loan" new policy on the market, and where will the second and third-tier cities go next?

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The current real estate market transaction is sluggish, the most important reason is that the country has been suppressing the real estate market, coupled with the current global economic instability, people are not confident about the future housing price trend, so many people hold a wait-and-see attitude, now even the housing prices in the first-tier cities are falling one after another.

Under this situation, the implementation of Guangzhou's "recognize the house but not the loan" new policy, which will bring a certain stimulation to those who have the demand for improving housing, and to those who come to work in Guangzhou. Although this is a matter of the stock market, it will also promote the recovery of the real estate market in Guangzhou to a certain extent.Additionally, this has also given some hope to those real estate companies. Because under the national policies that have been continuously suppressing the real estate market, the market demand is weak. At this time, real estate companies want to reduce prices but cannot, because there are policy adjustments. At this time, real estate companies are tightening their belts, and many large real estate companies have fallen into the dilemma of a broken capital chain, just to see who can persist to the end?

So, Guangzhou has fired the first shot of the new real estate market policy. If there is no accident, more first-tier cities and quasi-first-tier cities will introduce the "recognize the house but not the loan" new policy. This will allow major real estate companies to take a breath first, because the policy has been relaxed, and everyone has seen hope again.

In other words, the days of real estate merchants are a little better, which will play a certain role in preventing and controlling the financial risks of the real estate market.

However, at this time, new problems have arisen. With the new policies of first-tier cities, the pressure on the real estate markets of second and third-tier cities will become greater and greater. Because a part of the homebuyers will be sucked away by first-tier cities.

So, where will the second and third-tier cities go next? Without any accident, following the "recognize the house but not the loan" policy is the second, I believe there will be more preferential policies introduced. For example, the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rates can continue to be optimized, exempting related personal income taxes, and delaying the down payment and repayment time, and so on.

In summary, in the face of the preferential policies of first-tier cities, only by introducing more preferential policies can the second and third-tier cities stabilize the market. Of course, reducing housing prices is excluded. Because under the current situation, reducing housing prices is not the best way for the country to promote the recovery of the real estate market.

Finally, let's talk about the future trend of the real estate market with the implementation of Guangzhou's "recognize the house but not the loan" policy.

Regarding this point, I will talk about it from four aspects:1. The urbanization rate is now approaching a tipping point of 70%, and the pace of urbanization has been slowing down. Urbanization has entered the middle and later stages of quality development. This means that the future urban housing market will shift from a relatively short supply to a dynamic balance between supply and demand. The state has repeatedly emphasized that the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market is changing, and it has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market.

2. The birth rate in our country has been declining year by year, and it has now fallen below the equilibrium line of 1.1. Last year, it even began to show negative growth. It can be said that since last year, the demographic dividend in our country has reached a turning point. Therefore, we can no longer rely on population growth to drive the development of the real estate market in the future.

3. The mobility of the population between cities is now more free and frequent. The population of third-tier cities is absorbed by second-tier cities, and the population of second-tier cities is absorbed by first-tier cities. This means that the increase and decrease of regional populations will become more prominent in the future; it also means that the real estate market will show a serious phenomenon of polarization in the future.

4. The home ownership rate of urban residents in our country has reached 96.0%, and the housing demand of the people is shifting from "having a place to live" to "having a livable place to live." The real demand has reached a bottleneck. In fact, the "recognizing the house and not the loan" policy introduced by Guangzhou this time is to stimulate the demand of the existing market. However, there is a very realistic problem, that is, the demand for improved housing, which is to buy a set and then sell a set, and the total amount in the real estate market remains unchanged.

So, in the long run, the future real estate market will definitely show a downward trend, that is, the overall house prices will still be mainly reduced, but this is a long-term process.

In addition, the real estate market will also show a phenomenon of polarization, and the real estate market will shift from overall stability to a cold situation. Because with the absorption of the population, first and second-tier cities will always have demand, while third and fourth-tier cities will gradually lose the financial attributes of real estate.

Finally, I want to say that in the short term, with the introduction of new national policies, the second half of the year is a good time to buy a house, because it is about to be the golden September and silver October, and many places will definitely introduce more preferential policies for buying a house. In the long run, the supply and demand relationship of our country's real estate market is changing, and the dividends brought by the real estate market are gradually disappearing.