There's always a sense of "twist," even though everyone talks about value, in reality, they judge heroes by the current stock price, not by intrinsic value.

Let me give a few examples. Take MicroPort Medical, for instance. Its logic from the beginning was to use the parent company as an incubation platform, continuously incubating enterprises, and then allowing these subsidiaries to raise funds independently and go public independently. Its essence is actually an ecological enterprise.

For a pine tree, no matter how tall, there will always be a day when it falls. But for a bamboo forest, the individual bamboo is not important. Even if a bamboo withers, there will be a continuous stream of new bamboo to take its place.

Before 2019, the market didn't understand MicroPort's operations. The most common phrase the director heard was "Lao Chang is ambitious but lacks talent, and his greed is like a snake trying to swallow an elephant..." As a leader in many niches of high-value consumables in domestic medical devices, MicroPort's market value has been less than 10 billion for many years, which does not match its industry status.

In 2020, the MicroPort system started a vigorous rise, with subsidiaries rising, the parent company rising, more and more subsidiaries going public, and more and more subsidiaries rising. The market value of the MicroPort system reached a peak of nearly 150 billion, and at that time, the most common phrase the director saw was "The future of MicroPort is the sea of stars, Lao Chang has a big pattern, which is not something ordinary people can understand, and the market value of the MicroPort system will definitely break through 1 trillion in the future."

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Then, starting from 2021, MicroPort fell again with the Hang Seng Index, and now the market value of MicroPort has returned to 2017, wandering around 10 billion, and the image of Lao Chang being ambitious but lacking talent has come back again.

Take Ejiao as another example. Before the Ejiao incident in 2018, everyone's view of Ejiao was that it was a synonym for Ejiao, a leader in consumption upgrading, with outstanding brand advantages, a rare Chinese medicine target, optimistic about new product breakthroughs, and optimistic about a second growth. There were too many in-depth reports of more than 20 pages...

In 2018, when Ejiao's market value began to plummet due to too frequent and aggressive price increases, resulting in the loss of some customers and a large amount of goods accumulating in the channel, various Ejiao IQ tax speeches began to flood the Internet, such as "boiled donkey skin," which began to occupy people's minds at that time. After 2017, in-depth research reports on Dong'e Ejiao of more than 20 pages disappeared.Recently, with the resolution of the inventory issues of Ejiao, the company's market value has once again begun to soar. Although it has not surpassed the peak of 2017, the term "boiled donkey skin" has rarely been heard recently. Instead, there are now phrases like "Ejiao YYDS" and "market value will break through 100 billion sooner or later," and in-depth research reports of more than 20 pages are starting to pop up again...

Haha, isn't it funny to see this? What nonsense value, everyone's mindset is all about three big up/down lines changing everything.

When it rises, it's YYDS; when it falls, everything is wrong. When it rises, a bunch of people analyze it, and they can even dig up your ancestors for three generations. When it falls, no one cares, and even various media come to step on it.

In the small case of specific companies, in the large case of various industries, or even the overall market, hasn't it always been like this? In 2018 and 2019, the domestic pessimism was exactly the same as now, and even after the Spring Festival of 2020, when the market was about to open, various economists called for the suspension of the A-share market. What happened then? In 2020, the epidemic was at its peak, and the difficulties of 2018 and 2019 still existed. Due to the market's booming bull market, the so-called difficulties of 2018 and 2019 disappeared in an instant, and the voices on various social platforms were all about how great my country is, and 5,000 points are not a dream...

Look, this is the secondary market, what nonsense objectivity, what nonsense value, most people only judge heroes by the rise and fall.

In the secondary market, if you want to help in times of difficulty, it's a dream, and there has always been only adding insult to injury.

So, why is it that 7 people lose, 2 are flat, and 1 earns? Because most people are not rational and just sway back and forth with the rise and fall of market value. However, this also tells us that the market's consensus expectations are often wrong. Don't follow the majority. When everyone says it's not good, you should know, hmm, the market is about to get better. When everyone says it's good, be vigilant that the bear may be coming.

Otherwise, if the mainstream views of the market were all correct, how could it be 7 losses, 2 flat, and 1 profit? It should be 7 profits, 2 flat, and 1 loss.

Independent thinking and sticking to beliefs are very difficult.However, speaking of which, why is it so difficult to make independent judgments and think independently?

This is a bug inherent in us. Humans are naturally inclined to follow the crowd, and once we are inconsistent with the crowd, we will feel panic. Moreover, we are also naturally susceptible to the influence of the environment. Let's take a look at a story to see how much the environment can affect people.

Once upon a time, there was a person in the state of Lu who had the same name as Zeng Shen and killed someone. Someone ran to tell Zeng Shen's mother, "Your son has killed someone!" Zeng's mother remained calm and did not believe it, continuing to weave. However, when the third person ran to tell her that her son had killed someone, she began to believe it and even panicked, throwing down the shuttle and escaping over the wall.

Logically, a mother should know her son best. What kind of person Zeng Shen is, Zeng's mother must not be unaware. Mothers naturally trust their sons more, but when three people say so, Zeng's mother believed it to be true.

By analogy, when a company/an industry/our big A starts to decline, there are far more than three people who are bearish on them. Our understanding and trust in these companies/industries/big A are far less than Zeng's mother's understanding and trust in her son. If Zeng's mother is like this, how can we avoid being ordinary?

Therefore, in the secondary market, it is the mainstream to be unable to think independently, go with the flow, and judge heroes by the ups and downs of the market. Not only is everyone like this, but sometimes after watching too many ghost stories, even the director may be led astray. Therefore, identifying noise and thinking independently is actually a very, very difficult thing. As a result, in a big bear market, the director understands everyone's panic and unease, and also understands that everyone will judge heroes by market value.

How to maximize the way out of the predicament

Through the analysis in the previous text, I believe everyone is clear that to stand in the market and do a good job in investment is not an easy thing. In this process, we need to overcome many difficulties.

Fortunately, as long as the problem is seen, it is actually half solved. What we are afraid of is that we are not aware of the existence of the problem at all.

In response to the problem of being easily influenced by others, the director has said many times that it is to stay away from the market. Since it is difficult for us to make independent decisions without being influenced by others, we should try to eliminate the influence that others may bring to us. Taking the director himself as an example, the entrance to the circle of friends is closed, the director's WeChat has not joined any investment group, the groups that were joined before have basically withdrawn, and the big market has not been seen for a long time. The only flaw is that as a self-media, the director inevitably has to deal with readers and industry insiders, and their voices will inevitably be heard. Fortunately, the director will try to process these voices in a concentrated time after the market, and try to reduce the noise to a lower level.Secondly, since noise is an inevitable presence, we should try to deal with noises that are easier to discern, that is, to do low-scoring questions rather than high-scoring ones. For example, the noise of enterprises and the noise of industries/indices, the more micro, the difficulty is naturally higher; the more macro, the more based on the judgment of the overall trend, the difficulty is naturally lower.

For instance, judging whether the domestic economy can continue to grow and judging whether a company can continue to grow, the difficulty of the former is obviously much lower than that of the latter, and the ghost stories of the former are also easier to identify than those of the latter.

Therefore, as ordinary investors, if the level is not enough, it is best to choose as few enterprises as possible and choose more indices. Even if you choose enterprises, it is best not to choose any turnarounds in difficult situations or dark horses, but to choose well-recognized, good enterprises that have been tested by the market for many years. In this way, the possibility of ghost stories is also much lower.

Third, try to make as few decisions and judgments as possible. Since we are ordinary people, not professional institutions, and since it is difficult for us to identify noise, the probability of decision-making errors will also be higher. So, try to make as few decisions as possible, trade less, think more, and when you are not sure, it is better to be still than to move. When a ghost story panic occurs, first stabilize yourself, and it won't kill you to make a decision two days later. In two days, the interpretations of various KOLs and analysts on the market will also come out; when a big market is very exciting, also stabilize yourself, leave the market, and calm down and think about it after two days, maybe you can avoid making decisions blindly with the public hormones.

Moreover, the more you are not sure, the more emotional you are, the more you can't make decisions, the more you need to leave the market and think calmly, carefully sort out the underlying logic of your investment, adhere to long-termism, and view the development of the enterprises you choose from a long-term perspective.

For example, when Wuliangye is carrying out channel reform, we need to clarify whether this is a long-term or short-term impact on Wuliangye. Wuliangye's brand is still there, it is the first liquor enterprise in China after Moutai, and it is also the only liquor enterprise with a national brand advantage besides Moutai. There are almost no competitors in the thousand-yuan price range, and there is a group of loyal fans of strong fragrance. The problem of channels is ultimately short-term, and it can't be solved in one or two years, but it should be solved in three or four years. Wuliangye has also had channel reform issues more than once in history, and they have all been properly resolved. Not only Wuliangye, but also weaker liquor enterprises than Wuliangye, such as Yanghe, have also carried out multiple channel reforms/de-stocking in history, and they have all been resolved in the end. So, once these pieces of information are clear, so-called consumption weak recovery and other issues can also be viewed rationally.

However, it's easy to say, but humans are ultimately emotional animals, and rationality is ultimately a scarce resource. So, when you first look good at an enterprise/an industry, it's best to write down the long-term reasons you are optimistic about in time, and then whenever you encounter something, take out the original reasons for review in time, and see whether it is the long-term reasons that have changed, or your mentality has changed.

Declaration: The article only records the author's thoughts and does not constitute investment advice. Investment has huge risks, and we must be cautious, cautious, and cautious again. I hope everyone will treat their investment like decorating a house, and don't let the time to choose a company be less than the time you spend choosing furniture. You can weigh the small money repeatedly, how can you be so careless with the big money?